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Population Statistical Speculation

Intro

A speculative analysis made in an attempt to take population figures (or lower bounds) cited in two Y1 and two Y2 episodes at face value and reconcile them. Assumptions and Speculation are both made, and further supporting arguments in separate entries are cited as See Also links. Some scenarios "pass" with their starting assumptions (i.e. match all subsequently-listed numbers); some scenarios "fail" to match one or more subsequent numbers, but are presented to show why they fail or if they are useful in other ways.

Assumptions

The 311 cited in Earth's GTV news report is accurate from shortly before the Breakaway event.
Exactly 4 astronauts died in the Breakaway explosion. There could have been more, but only 4 are shown. A couple scenarios, however, will speculate more.
Including the above four, at least all of the "verifiable" losses are counted.
Numbers cited in TOA (>300), "The Metamorph" (297) and "Devil's Planet" (298) are all accurate. Some scenarios will be attempted even if they fail to match one or more of these numbers, to show why they fail.
That TOA is the last episode of Y1.
Paul, Victor, and Kano were lost between TOA and "Metamorph," even though they are not necessarily "verifiable" losses.
No deaths among those born on Alpha (at least not before "The Dorcons").
More live births on base then just Jackie (at least in most Scenarios).
Guest/temporary aliens (or invaders) are not counted in population figures. Maya is counted as a new resident added.
No other "off-camera" losses due to illness or such. Over the ~7 years, it seems likely there would be some other fatal illness or disease. It seems Alpha does have a top-grade Medical Section, so maybe the numbers would be low for awhile. However, there is nothing for the Editor to go on here, though one or two scenarios may be added for that at a later point.

Speculation

TOA's 300+ number is will be replaced with some speculative numbers in the Scenarios (often 302 or 303).
There were more live births on Alpha after Jackie, before the "The Metamorph" -- though some scenarios will present only the one known birth.
There were additional live births after the 297 cited in "The Metamorph" but before the 298 cited in "Devil's Planet."

Scenarios

Scenario 1_a: All Assumptions and Speculation used "as is."
Scenario 1_b: Tanya also lost between Y1 and Y2. (Nearly identical to Scenario 1_a)
Scenario 2_a: Victor, David, Paul not lost, but incapacitated and/or reassigned on Alpha. (FAILS)
Scenario 2_b: Victor, David, Paul not lost, others lost between Y1/2; variation of 2_a, also similar to 1_a
Scenario 3_a: 334 start point (GTV very wrong); 297 okay, 298 wrong; 1 child only. (FAILS)
Scenario 3_b: 334 start point (GTV very wrong); 297 and 298 okay; 1 Y1 child, a few Y2 children.
Scenario 4_a: 300 as starting point (GTV unaware of Meta astronaut deaths)
Scenario 4_b: 300 as starting point; but only 1 birth. (FAILS)
Scenario 5_a: 311 as starting point; but only 1 birth. (FAILS)
Scenario ρ₁: 311 as starting point, follows alternates from ATAP

Notes

Other scenarios are certainly possible.
Of course, the Editor realizes the series crew were not necessarily tracking such numbers so carefully. However the purpose of this entry is to see under what circumstances or tweaks these numbers can be made to work.

Conclusions

Losses were heavy, but stated population figures, even in Y1 alone strongly suggest there was more than one live birth during that timeframe, unless one assumes TOA is far earlier in Y1 (no scenario presented, but one may perhaps be added at some point), or that GTV had the wrong number in hand with its "311" (though many fans treat the 311 as an accurate count of the number alive on base at the time of Breakaway).
There can be considerable consistency flowing from Y1 to Y2 in terms of population numbers, especially given the TOA number sets a lower bound very close to the slightly lower "Metamorph" number, and several prominent Y1 characters have disappeared between Y1 and Y2.
Y2 numbers also suggest more live births.
Several scenarios work, but the ones that take all numbers "as is" work best by assuming more births. Again, even the numbers in Y1 alone suggest this, but Y2 also suggests this for its timeframe as well.