Population Statistical Speculation Scenario 3a
Intro
All Assumptions and Speculation in
Population Statistical Speculation used,
but with some major departures: only 1 child;
and the 311 mentioned in "Breakaway" by the newscast is way off.
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Numbers
334 (just before the Breakaway event; assume GTV wrong)
- 4 (pilots seen killed in Breakaway explosion)
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330 (end of "Breakaway")
-29 (more "verifiable losses" in Y1 before TOA)
+ 1 (Jackie's birth)
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302 (speculation: at start of TOA)
- 2 (Luke and Anna desert to Arkadia)
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300 (at end of TOA)
- 3 (loss of Paul, Victor, Kano)
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297 (quoted at start of Y2 / "The Metamorph")
- 2 (killed on Psychon)
- 1 (killed on Eagle destroyed by Mentor)
+ 1 (Maya welcomed as a new Alphan)
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295 (end of "The Metamorph")
- 3 (deaths after Psychon and before Entra)
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292
- 1 (Blake Maine on Entra in "Devil's Planet")
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291 (fails?: contradicts 298 in DP interrogation -- see Notes)
- 8 (after "Devil's Planet")
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283 (after Dorcons, assuming no further births)
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Notes
- This scenario fails to match in "Devil's Planet" where
the number 298 was obtained during an interrogation
where the subject (Koenig) was unconscious and
presumably could not try resisting with fake numbers.
Another way the interrogation could be wrong is
if it is a misreading.
Subtotals
- -35 lost during Y1
- + 1 birth during Y1
- - 3 lost between Y1 and Y2
- + 1 addition from outside during Y2
- -15 lost during Y2
Totals
- -53 lost (by end of Y2) -- 15.86% of original population
- + 1 birth -- 1 per 334.00 of original population
- + 1 addition from outside
- net decline of 51 (from 334 to 283) -- 15.27%