Population Statistical Speculation Scenario 2b
Intro
All Assumptions and Speculation in
prior entry
used "as is" -- except:
three unnamed Alphans lost between Y1 and Y2.
This entry "fixes" failure of
2a,
but is also essentially the same as
1a,
except for leaving Paul, David, Victor on Alpha (somewhere)
and substituting in three other losses.
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Numbers
311 (just before the Breakaway event)
- 4 (pilots seen killed in Breakaway explosion)
===
307 (end of "Breakaway")
-29 (more "verifiable losses" in Y1 before TOA)
+ 1 (Jackie's birth)
+23 (speculation: more births after Jackie)
===
302 (speculation: at start of TOA)
- 2 (Luke and Anna desert to Arkadia)
===
300 (at end of TOA)
- 3 (loss of three "unknown" adults and/or babies)
===
297 (quoted at start of Y2 / "The Metamorph")
- 2 (killed on Psychon)
- 1 (killed on Eagle destroyed by Mentor)
+ 1 (Maya welcomed as a new Alphan)
===
295 (end of "The Metamorph")
- 3 (deaths after Psychon and before Entra)
+ 7 (speculation: more births during this time?)
===
299
- 1 (Blake Maine on Entra in "Devil's Planet")
===
298 (the number quoted later in "Devil's Planet")
- 8 (after "Devil's Planet")
===
290 (after Dorcons, assuming no further births)
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Subtotals
- -35 lost during Y1
- +24 births during Y1
- - 3 lost between Y1 and Y2
- + 1 addition from outside during Y2
- -15 lost during Y2
- + 7 births during Y2 (before Entra)
Totals
- -53 lost (by end of Y2) -- 17.04% of original population
- +31 births (before Entra) -- 1 per 10.03 of original population
- + 1 addition from outside
- net decline of 21 (from 311 to 290) -- 6.75%