Population Statistical Speculation Scenario 2a
Intro
All Assumptions and Speculation in
prior entry
used "as is" -- completely:
except Paul, David, Victor, and Tanya are not lost,
but rather incapacitated and/or reassigned elsewhere on Alpha.
|
Numbers
311 (just before the Breakaway event)
- 4 (pilots seen killed in Breakaway explosion)
===
307 (end of "Breakaway")
-29 (more "verifiable losses" in Y1 before TOA)
+ 1 (Jackie's birth)
+20 (speculation: more births after Jackie)
===
299 (scenario fails(?) at start of TOA -- see Notes)
- 2 (Luke and Anna desert to Arkadia)
===
297 (quoted at start of Y2 / "The Metamorph")
- 2 (killed on Psychon)
- 1 (killed on Eagle destroyed by Mentor)
+ 1 (Maya welcomed as a new Alphan)
===
295 (end of "The Metamorph")
- 3 (deaths after Psychon and before Entra)
+ 7 (speculation: more births during this time)
===
299
- 1 (Blake Maine on Entra in "Devil's Planet")
===
298 (the number quoted later in "Devil's Planet")
- 8 (after "Devil's Planet")
===
290 (after Dorcons, assuming no further births)
|
Notes
- Lacking the assumption of loss of Paul, Victor, and Kano,
there is no way to bridge the "over 300" at the beginning
of TOA with the 297 at the start of "The Metamorph" --
unless at least 2 other deaths are assumed between Y1 and Y2
(see the following for one such:
Scenario 2b)
Subtotals
- -35 lost during Y1
- +21 births during Y1
- + 1 addition from outside during Y2
- -15 lost during Y2
- + 7 births during Y2 (before Entra)
Totals
- -50 lost (by end of Y2) -- 16.07% of original population
- +28 births (before Entra) -- 1 per 11.11 of original population
- + 1 addition from outside
- net decline of 21 (from 311 to 290) -- 6.75%
- (scenario fails to bridge two of the known numbers, however)