Population Statistical Speculation Scenario 4a
Intro
All Assumptions and Speculation in
Population Statistical Speculation used,
but with a moderate deparature:
GTV (the newscaster in the
"Breakaway" newscast)
is unaware of the 11 recent deaths.
Koenig mentions 9 deaths to Simmonds,
then 2 more die a little later on --
all before the
Breakaway event.
Simmonds or ILC did not relay
this to GTV before their GTV's broadcast.
Assume, however, that GTV are aware
Simmonds went to Alpha.
Thus, while GTV believe 311 were on Alpha at the moment
Breakaway began,
the real population is 11 less, or 300,
in this Scenario.
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Numbers
300 (just before the Breakaway event)
- 4 (pilots seen killed in Breakaway explosion)
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296 (end of "Breakaway")
-29 (more "verifiable losses" in Y1 before TOA)
+ 1 (Jackie's birth)
+34 (speculation: more births after Jackie)
===
302 (speculation: at start of TOA)
- 2 (Luke and Anna desert to Arkadia)
===
300 (at end of TOA)
- 3 (loss of Paul, Victor, Kano)
===
297 (quoted at start of Y2 / "The Metamorph")
- 2 (killed on Psychon)
- 1 (killed on Eagle destroyed by Mentor)
+ 1 (Maya welcomed as a new Alphan)
===
295 (end of "The Metamorph")
- 3 (deaths after Psychon and before Entra)
+ 7 (speculation: more births during this time?)
===
299
- 1 (Blake Maine on Entra in "Devil's Planet")
===
298 (the number quoted later in "Devil's Planet")
- 8 (after "Devil's Planet")
===
290 (after Dorcons, assuming no further births)
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Subtotals
- -35 lost during Y1
- +35 births during Y1
- - 3 lost between Y1 and Y2
- + 1 addition from outside during Y2
- -15 lost during Y2
- + 7 births during Y2 (before Entra)
Totals
- -53 lost (by end of Y2) -- 17.67% of original population
- +42 births (before Entra) -- 1 per 7.14 of original population
- + 1 addition from outside
- net decline of 10 (from 300 to 290) -- 3.33%