Population at Psychon

Summary

• Population reported (by Helena) as 297 at the start of the "The Metamorph" episode. There are three "verifiable losses" in the episode, plus one addition (Maya), which would result in a population of 295. The rest of this entry focuses on the 297 number.

Analysis

• There are 35 "verifiable" personnel losses in Y1 after the Breakaway event and to the end of that season, not counting Victor, Paul, and Kano as "verifiable."
• If the 311 population figure in "Breakaway" is taken literally (as the rest of this entry does), then losing 35 and adding Jackie Crawford is a net loss of 34.
• 311 - 34 = 277.
• This is 20 less than the 297 that Helena cites at the very start of this episode (and thus Y2).
• If all of the above are taken at face value, there would have to be 20 more births on Alpha after Jackie but before the Psychon encounter, for 21 total births. (Aside: If there were no births except Jackie, the "Breakaway" figure should have been 331.)
• If Paul, Victor, and Kano are also assumed lost between Y1 and Y2, just before Psychon, then 24 total births would have to be assumed to reconcile the numbers.
• (Actually, at least two losses of some sort between Y1 and Y2 -- either among the above three in the prior point, or at least two others -- are "needed" to reconcile the "Arkadia" 300+ with the "Metamorph" 297, because if one assumes only 301 before Luke and Anna's desertion, that means the number would only go down to 299, rather than 297. So at least two losses are "implied" between Y1 and Y2, which drives up the total birth count before Psychon to at least 23. Again, though, if the three major regulars of Y1 not seen in Y2 are all assumed lost, than 24 births are implied -- again assuming the 311 in "Breakaway" is accurate.)
• If more losses are assumed before Psychon (e.g. more deaths at Breakaway or its immediate aftermath, or at other points in Y1), then more births would have to be assumed.

Notes

• Story-wise, it is unlikely that Helena, the Chief Medical Officer of Alpha, would cite the incorrect figure in "The Metamorph."
• "The Testament of Arkadia" -- the last episode of Y1 in production order -- indicates 300+ for a population, which also seems difficult to reconcile without either the 311 at Breakaway being wrong, or there being more births.

Conclusions

• If the "Breakaway" 311, "Arkadia" 300+, and "Metamorph" 297 are all taken at face value, together with the known losses after Breakaway, the only way to reconcile the numbers is to assume 20+ more births after Jackie's, before Psychon. Otherwise, one or more of the numbers is wrong or has to be ignored.