Population: Male / Female Balance Conclusions
Intro
Some overall conclusions on the
Male / Female Balance
analysis and scenarios presented in the last few entries,
using the assumptions posited throughout those entries.
All of the following work off of numeric rates of loss,
unless a different starting point (e.g. Psychon) is cited
for some of the numbers.
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List
- As previously noted and clear from all the tables,
the loss rate of the original adult male population of Alpha is high,
running 86% of all losses, and
ranging from ~26-29% of all the original men of the base.
If Y2's endpoint (2409 DAB) is assumed to be correct,
and both seasons are looked at as taking 6.6 years,
the implication is that ~78-87% of all original men
would be lost within 20 years, when the Alphan children
would just be starting to have children of their own.
- However, the death rate in Y2 was far lower than Y1,
so the drastic scenario in the prior bullet point
is evidently avoided. If all pre-Y2 losses are
presumed to be in less than 342 days,
if Y2 loss rates are assumed into later timeframes as well.
- Even if Y2's timeline were redone,
from the existing 342-2409 DAB to 1095-2409 DAB instead,
just for the sake of argument,
Y2 presents a much more survivable loss rate than
a longer Y1 timeframe does....
Pre-Y2 losses were about ~30 men
(~17-19% of original male population)
over the revised 3-year timeline of Y1,
or 100% of men in 15-18 years!
Y2 losses were ~14 men (~10-11% of men remaining just before
Psychon).
Even in the revised Y2 timeframe of 3.6 years,
100% loss would take ~32-36 years.
- 20-23% of women would have had to have children
(again, assuming one child per woman).
- 18-20% of men would have had to have children
(same assumption)